F1 2023 Pre-season Testing

While lap-times from pre-season testing have to be taken with a pinch of salt, you never know what hand teams are playing when it comes to fuel loads and engine modes, it's rare that those at the sharp end of the times and those at the bottom, tend to vary come the first race weekend.

What we can take away from the running is, reliability, attitude of the cars on track and the general demeanor and body language of the drivers and team personnel, which often tell more than the stop-watch.

So in reverse order in how they finished the 2022 season, let's have a look at where the teams are at after their smash and grab, three days of pre-seaosn testing in Bahrain ahead of the 2023 season opener.

Williams:

Williams were very much the back-markers of the 2022 season, as they have been for the last few years. 2022 was the first full-season the team operated under it's new owners, Dorilton Capital, after the Williams family sold-up in mid-2021. While Alex Albon pulled some surprise performances out of the car, notably the Saudi GP where he essentially did the entire race on a single set of tyres and scoring some points, Williams were quite clearly off-the-pace compared to the rest of the grid.

The new regulations for 2022 definitely allowed them to get in the mix occasionally, but as the development race ensued, they started to get left behind.

Pre-seaosn testing hasn't really shown anything to suggest there will be any change to that. If you were to look at the final times for each day, you might believe Williams could be scrapping it in the mid-field, but their best times were set on the softest C5 compound of tyre, late in the evening when conditions were at their best.

Reliability was good however, with both drivers, Albon and rookie American Logan Sargeant, racking up near 440 laps between them over the three days. Albon will undoubtedly pull the best out of the car as he did last year and once Sargeant can keep within half a second of his teammate and keep the car on track, he'll manage what is expected from him.

James Vowles is now Team Principal and he might implement some positive change, but I don't expect any miracles The team might grab a few points finishes, but any movement up the order will take a disastrous season from other teams.

Prediction: 10th with a handful of points.

Alpha Tauri:

Alpha Tauri had a very disappointing 2022 season. For a team that had been battling for fifth or sixth over the previous few seasons, to finish last but one was a real down-turn in performance. The car was tricky to drive, suffering from understeer and high tyre degradation. Pierre Gasly, who had been on run of good form after his demotion from the Red Bull team in 2019, had a frustrating season, battling with the under performing car.

Teammate, Yuki Tsunoda, closed the gap to Gasly but never consistently outperformed him.

For 2023, Gasly is out, having moved to Alpine and in his place is 2022's super-sub, Nyck De Vries. He and Tsunoda racked up c.350 laps over the three days of testing and while there were no major reliability issues on track the car did spend several extended periods in the pit garage. Like Williams, they did set a few mid-table lap times, but on the softest tyre (a tyre that won't be used in the race, I should add) but they also finished day 2 and 3 with the slowest time posted on the board. They might not be the slowest team out there, they might even be at the back of the mid-field battle based on long-run pace, but single-lap qualifying might be their Achilles heal. That, and a relatively inexperienced and unproven driver pairing might hurt Alpha Tauri in 2023.

Prediction: 7th if the drivers can perform on a high level.

Haas:

Haas started 2022 on a high. Kevin Magnussen was brought in at the 11th hour to replace Nikita Mazepin and at the first race of the season, he qualified the car seventh and finished the race in fifth. A massive turn around from 2021, when they failed to score a point. Performance waned as the season progressed however, Haas not keeping-up the same development rate as those around them. A surprise pole-position at the Brazilian GP boosted morale near the end of the season, but it was clear Haas needed to pull it's socks up if it didn't want to slip back to darker times. From pre-season testing, things do look promising. K-Mag and new teammate, the returning Nico Hulkenberg, put in 400+ laps. While they didn't necessarily light up the timing screens, with varied end-of-day results. It showed the team were confident enough in the car to play around with different set-ups to explore the capabilities of the car. Long-run pace looked strong and with a safe and consistent driver pairing, Haas could be fighting at the thick end of the mid-field. My only concern would be the potential for a clash between their two drivers, who have had disagreements in the past, but if they can play nice, they could be a formidable force. Prediction: 5th once they can keep on top of development.

Aston-Martin:

Aston Martin had a slow start to the 2022 season, but there were signs near the season's climax that things were on the up. Former Red Bull designer, Dan Fallows, took up the role of Technical Director in April 2022 and his impact was evident as the season progressed. The now retired Sebastian Vettel was consistently scoring points in the season's latter half and the team were fighting at the sharp-end of the mid-field. The 2023 car will be the first to be fully overseen by Fallows and from pre-season testing, thing look good. Aston racked up c.400 laps and the pace was strong. New-signing, the formidable Fernando Alonso, was posting some lightning times and the car looked well behaved and consistent out on track. Alonso's teammate, Lance Stroll, was absent from pre-season testing, having sustained injuries training (suspected broken wrists). The team then drafted in their reserve driver and reigning F2 champ, Felipe Drogovich. With the time he was given in the car, it's likely he will be racing the car, at least in Bahrain, while Stroll recovers.

He performed relatively well for a rookie drafted in at the last minute. If he can manage to stay within five to eight tenths of Alonso, it will look good on his CV.

Prediction: 3rd if they can steal a march on Mercedes and some Alonso magic.

Alfa-Romeo Sauber:

Alfa-Romeo were somewhat flattered by the woes of Aston-Martin and Alpha Tauri last season. They only beat the former on count-back as the finished on level points. Alfa started 2022 relatively strong. With a good car design for the new set of regulations and the high-performing (in the early half of the season at least) Ferrari power-unit, the team was a regular point scorer. Bottas, rejuvenated, having been released from the high-pressure of being at championship-contending Mercedes, consistently picked up points in the first half of the season. His rookie team-mate, Zhou Guanyu, performed well in his first year, but was blighted by several mechanical retirements. It was that unreliability that ultimately cost Alfa from making any further head-way, with a massive gulf between them and fifth in the championship.

They had a decent pre-season test, completing over 400 laps over the three days. This bodes well for reliability. While Zhou topped the times on Day 2 of the test, this again was more of a glory run, soft tyres at peak conditions.

In the past Alfa/Sauber have often ran testing programmes that flatter the car, so their times have to be taken with some pessimism. The car did seem to have an appetite for tyres and there's already talk of a much needed upgrade package to release pace from car, but it won't be ready until at least the European season.

It's very much going to be a transitional year for the team, as the slow takeover by Audi begins,

Prediction: 9th barring massive drama for others.

Mclaren:

With McLaren being the "mid-field champions" finishing fourth in the standings in 2021 and third in 2020, after Ferrari had a nightmare year. Finishing fifth last year was a huge disappointment. This was in part to the now departed Daniel Ricciardo not being able to extract performance from the car and their closest rival, Alpine, having the magic hands of Fernando Alonso. Lando Norris punched above his weight yet again, being the only driver out the big-three to step on the podium. However, results were inconsistent, with qualifying pace lacking, the McLaren not being able to bring the tyres into a good operating window for a good quali-lap. This all too often left the team playing catch-up come race day. The under-performing Mercedes power-unit, especially in the early season, didn't help their cause either. Pre-season testing wasn't particularly promising too. The car spent a lot of time in the garage, with the team only completing a little over 300 laps over the three days. The car didn't look bad when it was out on track, but it was slow. The team admitted they changed direction with the ethos of the car late in the winter and they are now playing catch-up. An upgrade package is already in the pipe-line, but like Alfa, it will be Europe at the earliest, before it's seen. McLaren will have to work hard to turn things around and keep their super-talented driver, Lando Norris, on the payroll. He's hot property on the driver market and although he signed a long-term deal with McLaren, there are undoubtedly performance clauses in there and a contract in F1 is about as solid as jelly.

His new team-mate, rookie Oscar Piastri, comes in to F1 with a lot of expectation, having dominated nearly every discipline in his junior career. He'll have to stay within half a second of Norris to keep the naysayers at bay, if he beats him, well that's a win-win. An under-performing car might bode in his favour.

Prediction: 8th unless their upgrades perform miracles.

Alpine:

Alpine had a pretty stellar season last year, finishing best of the rest. This despite a pretty poor reliability record, which effected Alonso the most and partly why he left the team. Ocon was consistent, picking up points in almost every round. On paper, he out-performed Alonso, but Alonso suffered alarming reliability problems and the team made a habit of screwing up his strategy. If you look at the data, Alonso was the quicker driver. Their pre-season test was very hard to read. The didn't do the most laps, with just a little over 300 over the three days. They also never lit-up the times, but they have form in not going for all out lap-time performance in testing. The car looked solid enough on track, but nothing remarkable. The biggest issue that might arise for Alpine is their driver pairing. Ocon remains and he is joined by fellow Frenchman, Pierre Gasly. Neither driver has yet shown that last 5% in performance that separates the good from the great. They also have quite publicly not gotten on very well in the past. Ocon will want to assert his dominance in the team, being with them now for a fourth year. Gasly has it all to prove, having left the Red-Bull fold, he has to establish himself as the real deal, with last year being shaky for him.

These two drivers, with a lot to prove and a tumultuous relationship could cost the team points more than any performance issues with the car.

Prediction: 6th but it will be a close battle with Haas.

Mercedes:

Mercedes had their worst season since the turbo-hybrid era of F1 began back in 2014. Third place for the team who have had the most dominant run in F1 history, was an abject failure.

The team fundamentally got the new regulations wrong, designing a car that was noticeably different to the rest of the grid. That and an under-performing power-unit, saw the once dominant team fight for the podium scraps. Which is why all were surprised when Mercedes turned up to pre-season testing with a car that wasn't too dissimilar to last year. They claimed to have got on top of the car's flaws, but this doesn't appear to be true.

Firstly, they had some very evident reliability issues. The Mercs bringing out the red flags more than once. Secondly, the car didn't appear all that quick. Which was all-but validated when it was announced that the team will be bringing an upgrade equivalent to a B-Spec car, probably around the European season. This could prove frustrating for a team who arguably have the strongest driver pairing on the grid. Frustration that might boil-over on track. Dominance never lasts in F1. Prediction: Fourth, especially if Aston steal a march before any meaningful upgrades.

Ferrari:

At the beginning of the 2022 season, it looked like it might be Ferrari's year. Two wins in the first three races, the car was arguably the fastest on the grid and kit was reliable.

Then things got shaky. Several strategic blunders, the odd driving error and worst of all, reliability woes.

The latter being the Achilles heal in their season. While Sainz suffered the brunt of the failures, in the season's second half, Ferrari were forced to run their power-unit in a reduced capacity.

The car was still the quickest car over a single lap, with Leclerc grabbing the most pole positions, but it was a pace they couldn't sustain in the races. I wouldn't go as far as to say they handed Red Bull the championships in the second half of the year, but it lent a helping hand in RB's dominance.

For 2023, the management structure has been shaken up. Binotto is out and in has come Fred Vasseur from Alfa Romeo.

Vasseur has a jovial exterior, but is a no-nonsense engineer. He has a glittering career in the junior formula, helping young talent, most notably winning the GP2 (now F2) championship in 2006 with Lewis Hamilton, when he was at the helm of ART.

He also nurtured a great relationship with Leclerc in his rookie season at Alfa Romeo in 2018. Binotto seemed reluctant to give Leclerc ultimate number 1 status last year, so Vasseur could be key in getting Leclerc the success he duly deserves.

Testing was promising for the Scuderia. They completed over 430 laps, so reliability issues from last year appear to be solved. The car looked good out on track. Predictable and undramatic. Murmurs from the paddock are that they were holding back somewhat too, so there may be more to come next weekend, in terms of pace. Will it be enough to usurp, though?

Prediction: 2nd, but a stronger more consistent season.

Red Bull:

It's hard to argue that Red Bull and Max Verstappen weren't going to walk to both titles last year. Despite a shaky start, with a double DNF in the opening round, they never looked back.

While the woes of Ferrari and Mercedes aided their cause, Red Bull were on a roll after their marginal success in 2021, which they ramped up in 2022 to devastating effect. Team & lead driver working in harmony and on all cylinders. Testing would appears to only ratify that. They completed over 430 laps in the three days, with Max completing several race distances on the first day. The car looked quick, stable and reliable. The demeanor and body language from Max, Perez, Horner and the team at large all pointed to an organisation full of reassured confidence.

Ominous and hard to argue they won't cement their dominance again in 2023.

Prediction: 1st in dominant form.